Summary: At the end of last month, the IPCC released the next component of the Fifth Assessment Report. Working Group II’s addition follows the updated scientific analysis of Working Group I and provides information of the impacts of climate change, vulnerability to climate change, and adaptation suggestions. While some argue that the report goes too far in describing the potential doom and gloom of climate change, others counter that the report does not go far enough. Regardless, it can serve as a useful tool for climate change policy negotiations.
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By Kristin Campbell
At the end of March 2014, Working Group II (WGII) unleashed upon the global community their contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Upon release, climate change reappeared in the news. Reactions ranged from acceptance of the likelihood of the grim future portrayed to saying the doom and gloom touted did not go far enough. The reactions are expected because the drafting process of the IPCC Reports is built on compromise. Each word is meticulously chosen to create a document with which all of the authors can accept. While the Reports will never be considered perfect, they can still have great utility for policy makers and international action on climate change.
The IPCC Reports are generated by thousands of scientists that contribute the newest and best research to the project. The IPCC was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in the late 1980s. Since then, scientists from around the world have collaborated to produce five reports on the state of the present climate and forecast for the future climate. The final Report survives numerous edits from experts and evolves through additional revisions by the authors. These reports emerge approximately every seven years and contain updated information as the result of increasingly more advanced climate models as well as a better understanding of the atmosphere as a whole.
Working Group I (WGI) provides the scientific basis for the climate change discussion, addressing the past climate regime to give a baseline with which to compare today’s current climate in addition to validation for the climate models that forecast the future climate. WGI’s contribution to the AR5 is a massive document of more than 1,500 pages. Sifting through each word was a daunting task for the reviewers. To facilitate using the information in the IPCC, each section has a technical summary to start the chapter. Quick snippets about the contents of the section highlight important facts contained within the section. Should something within the technical summary pique your interest, a thorough discussion is found within the chapter. But even the technical summaries can be overwhelming. Thankfully, part of the IPCC process requires publication of a “Summary for Policymakers” (SPM) for each Working Group. The SPM breaks the WGI’s 1,500 pages down to only thirty-six pages, but it contains a wealth of information. The SPM allows for solid reference to the science to justify policy decisions rather than cite to the full IPCC report.
In terms of practical use, WGI is immensely beneficial to the scientific community, but the document is rife with technical terms that are best understood by fellow scientists. Even the painstakingly crafted graphics that provide visual references cannot completely portray the totality of the impacts of increased precipitation in certain areas from recurring and prolonged droughts in other areas. Knowing that the average global temperature will increase or precipitation patterns will change is only one piece of the puzzle. For the scientific research to be truly effective, it is imperative to understand what it means in a world beyond computer models.
Enter Working Group II. This Group provides a further connection of the scientific consensus with life on Earth. The authors are tasked with absorbing the technical discussion of the scientific results and translating the information into a language that resonates with a larger audience. Step one is evaluating the impacts. The scientific information presented in WGI highlights regions that may be affected by certain atmospheric phenomena. WGII must evaluate these regions and consider a multitude of factors to determine the impact climate change will have. WGII also looks at the vulnerability of the affected states. Some places might be susceptible to similar alterations of the climate system, but in some cases, social and economic factors will determine just how detrimental the climate changes will be.
The magnitude of impacts in many places hinges on the vulnerability of the people living there. Vulnerability, as defined within the Summary for Policymakers for WGII, is “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.” The vulnerability of a population is not solely based on the proximity to the rising seas or being situated on the edge of a desert. The social and economic dynamics also affect the vulnerability of the people.
Climate change is happening. Working Group II reported that the effects of climate change are beginning to appear everywhere. Some places around the globe will see similar changes in the climate, but the impacts will not be nearly as devastating. Part of WGII’s Report looks at adaptation. Mitigation should not be completely ruled out of the picture, but with the effects of climate change already appearing, adaptation needs a stronger point in the discussion. Tragically, those adapting first, not only have contributed the least climate change, but also lack sufficient resources to properly attack the problem. For example, Bangladesh only contributed 0.4 metric tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2010 (while the United States emitted 17.6 metric tons), but it is already considering ways to reinforce coastline against climate-change-induced sea level rise and looking into alternatives for their agricultural sectors that will be sustainable as the climate changes.
As the international community evaluates the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in anticipation of the next Conference of the Parties in December 2014, the IPCC’s report should be taken into consideration. The IPCC has produced a report that contains substantial information about how and why climate change is occurring. We can no longer sit back and discuss climate change as a future event. The impacts, including those forecasted by previous IPCC reports, are making themselves known. They are not going away. Sea level is rising and islands are disappearing. The average global temperature is rising and precipitation patterns are changing. In developed countries, like the United States, the realities of these changes might still be discussed in the future tense. And even when the impacts becomes part of daily life, countries with stronger economies and technological advances will be in a better position to adapt.
Developing countries are not as lucky. Many people around the world are struggling for regular access to clean water and enough food. Even more are relegated to living day to day with a never-ending uncertainty about whether they will be able to make ends meet. On top of all of those trials and tribulations, climate change threatens to take every little bit of what they own. Adaptation is not impossible, but it relies on the kindness of others. It relies on global climate policy having the teeth to demand mitigation of climate change to best of our abilities. And more importantly, climate change policy must address adaptation, including how to adapt and how to fund the adaptation. Climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. Humans are resilient and change is possible. The IPCC has laid out a dismal future if nothing changes. As the UNFCCC looks for a plan for 2015 and beyond, they should evaluate the work put together by all of the IPCC scientists, take it to heart, and help prevent climate change catastrophe. The UNFCCC has been entrusted to solve the climate change problem through international collaboration. The time for talking has run out. Instead, they should take immediate action to limit greenhouse gas emissions and foster development of adaptation strategies.