Climate Change and World Conflict: A Crucial Juncture

 By Ian Lopez

As the world approaches a critical juncture on climate and energy policies in the face of accelerating global warming, policymakers face difficult choices. Yet, over the past five years, global conflict continues to produce new and pressing concerns for policymakers. Rather than considering these developments separately, they should be understood as intertwined; while not directly correlated, they greatly influence one another. Understanding this dynamic can prepare policymakers and help influence international policy. The unexpected shockwaves of international conflict, both present and potential, might be weathered better with an understanding of how these processes influence one another.

Chicken or the Egg: Which Influences Which?

Anthropogenic climate change is a relatively recent phenomenon; but war, unfortunately, has been a constant of human civilization for as long as history is recorded. Though conflict remains largely motivated by political and cultural movements, resources and scarcity are often top motivators. Due to the rise of concerns over resource scarcity, rapid global productivity, and climate shifts due to climate change, a hot area of scholarly debate focuses on whether concerns like resource scarcity, rapid global productivity, and climate shifts due to climate change increase conflict. The results are a tentative yes, but leading scholars stress that the relationship is not one of direct causation. Rather, climate change heightens certain stressors which can be part of the reason for conflict to begin; and even this is more often regional than between nations. For example, climate change might make droughts or flooding more frequent, displacing large populations, leading to conflict. Likewise, out-of-control resource extraction can devastate ecosystems, leading again to instability and conflict. Some far more direct examples of climate-induced conflict exist, such as the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border clashes during 2021-22, in which a dispute over a climate-impacted, rain deprived reservoir that fed critical agriculture was the main source of dispute. Substantial academic attention has also focused on the role of climate-induced drought, water scarcity, and its relation to crop failures and food shortages which contributed to the Syrian civil war, and the war in Darfur, Sudan. But these examples are rare; whether they are indicative of wider trends is hard to ascertain. More obvious is the devastating impacts of war on energy, commerce, and land, which in turn exacerbate the effects of climate change. An IPCC report on Human Security in 2018highlighted the cause-effect relationship between conflicts and environmental degradation, for example.

In any case, energy and resources are implicated in nearly every conflict today, including the Russo-Ukraine war. This makes a compelling case for climate change influencing conflict in a small but distinct way. When authoritarians consider the state of their country 10, 30, or 50 years from now, will an attractive chunk of arable, productive land across their border seem that much more tempting? They are preparing for a climate-pressed future, and so should we. This dispassionate cost-benefit calculus is undoubtedly influenced by the way climate change will benefit and disadvantage certain regions of the world.

Preparedness for a Climate-Conflict Linked Future

Policymakers must prepare for a world in which the calculus of conflict is changing. This necessitates a recognition that the motives and factors affecting conflict are shifting. The United Nations has already taken the first and most important step, in recognizing the existence of this pattern. Climate change’s most direct contribution to conflict is in the form of destabilization and forced migration away from regions that become unproductive and unlivable. The worldwide pattern of human migration is already deeply troubling and remains a major flashpoint of international politics. Migration naturally brings groups once separated by borders into conflict and already has contributed to the resurgence of right-wing politics in Europe. With climate change accelerating mass migrations, the future instability and damage that will result is likely to be significant. As such, awareness of climate change’s accelerating influence on these developments needs to be a top area of study; the United States should take the United Nation’s example in incorporating the climate-conflict relationship into foreign policy deliberations.

Part of the way for policymakers and leaders to prepare for and prevent conflict is to address their root causes through diplomacy or aid. However, the prospect of foreign aid from the perspective of the United States is in doubt under the current administration, to say the least. The pausing of foreign aid to numerous nations—particularly those under strong climate pressures in the coming decades—carries noteworthy implications for the climate-conflict relationship. Such aid represents our investment in global security, not just in health and food security, but also global stability. Scarcity, depravation, and uncertainty lead to the kind of political and economic instability which is the most potent indicator of imminent conflict. With these factors in mind, international policy—which has already begun to take note of this trend—must further adapt to the climate-conflict dynamic. Preparedness for this trend will not only help avoid the worst consequences. It will allow us to start considering potential solutions, such as foreign aid schemes, migratory and asylum agreements, and more, that will require substantial transnational cooperation.